Thunder Bay local market weekly report (February 17 - February 21)

Major Local Impact
Confederation College international student enrollment plummeted, forced to suspend 11 programs

Confederation College Specific Data:
• Fall 2024: New international student enrollment YoY plummeted 39.2%(vs fall 2023)
• 2025 PAL quota: only 1,544 (vs 1,929 in 2024,down 22%）
• International student ratio: from fall enrollment 45% plummeted to 20-25%
• President Michelle Salo warns: if policies don't change, international enrollment could dropup to 69%
• Ontario college system overall down 46%, some schools down as much as 79%
• March 26, 2025: Board approved suspension of 11 programs (effective September), affecting engineering technology, early childhood education, hospitality, business, etc.
• Affected fields: engineering technology, early childhood education, hospitality, business, etc.Local in-demand talent programs

National Study Permit Data YoY:
• 2023→2024: Study permit approvalsplummeted 45%(~280,000 vs 512,000), Ontario saw largest decrease at55%
• 2024→2025 (Jan-Jul): New international student arrivals down again69%
• Total study permit holders: January 2024 1.024 million → July 2025 786,000（-23%）
• Jan-Apr 2025 new study permit approval rate only33%(vs 47% in 2024), fewer than 31,000 new permits issued (-70%）
• 2026 Plan: International student visa target only155,000(vs 2025 target 306,000,down 49%）

Ripple Effects on Thunder Bay:
• Lakehead University + Confederation College are the two major economic engines locally
• Fewer international students → lower rental demand → may ease rent increase pressure
• Fewer international students → lower local retail and restaurant spending → service sector employment under pressure
• Fewer international students → less population growth momentum (2023-2024 growth mainly driven by international immigration)
• Program suspensions → local skilled talent training gap → long-term labor shortage worsens
• PGWP (Post-Graduation Work Permit) tightening → proportion of international students staying in Thunder Bay may decline

Local positives for Thunder Bay
Rural Community Immigration Pilot (RCIP) showing significant results

• Predecessor RNIP (2019-2024): Over 5 years brought in1,200+ new immigrants, with 500 employers participating and 900+ skilled workers retained
• Brings Thunder Bay $11.6 million in wages annually, directly filling 229 positions and indirectly creating 92 jobs (321 total)
• New program RCIP (launched January 2025):Already supported 800+ people in the first year(CBC report on February 4)
• Focus: healthcare, retail services, skilled trades
• CEDC has launched the second year plan, continuing to accept employer applications
• Federal MP Patty Hajdu stated: rural immigration remains a priority
• PNP provincial nominee 2026 quotas significantly increased(55,000 → 91,500), Ontario's allocation expected to increase

Implications for the Chinese community:
• Nationwide quotas are significantly reduced, but RCIP operates independently, so Thunder Bay is relatively less affected
• Healthcare, skilled trades, and food services are the most in-demand hiring areas
• New immigrants with relevant experience have good chances of obtaining PR through RCIP

Major
Thunder Bay Pulp and Paper halts newsprint production (January 22)
Will stop newsprint production in Q1 2026,affecting 150 employees. North American newsprint demand has fallen 40% since 2022, with an 18% decline in 2025 alone. The mill will continue operating as a softwood kraft pulp mill (retaining 300 jobs). Ontario has established a POWER employment emergency center to support affected workers.

Major
Confederation College cancels 11 programs (March 26)
Due to a 39% plunge in international students and federal visa quota cuts, forced to cancel 11 programs including engineering technology, early childhood education, and hospitality management. The president warns of a possible further 69% decline. No layoffs currently, but hiring freeze in place.Directly impacts the training of local talent in high-demand fields.

Watch
Northwestern Ontario forestry crisis continues
• Ignace sawmill — indefinite shutdown starting March (affecting 19-25 people)
• Ear Falls sawmill — shut down since October 2024
• Terrace Bay pulp mill — idle since January 2024
• Ontario manufacturing lost 29,400 jobs in Q2 2025

Positive
RCIP immigration pilot's first year results impressive (CBC, February 4)
Already supported 800+ people in obtaining PR eligibility through employer referrals. CEDC has launched the second year plan.

Positive
Conference Board forecasts 2% GDP growth in 2025
After a 0.2% GDP contraction in 2024, construction and healthcare sectors are expected to drive recovery. Lower interest rates are a key positive factor.