Decoding the altcoin season: 6 position-building strategies to help you seize the altcoin market

1. When will altcoin season arrive?
I believe altcoin season is coming soon. Here are some key analysis points:

1.1 The cycle is divided into two phases
Phase 1: Bitcoin price rises, altcoin prices fall (Bitcoin dominance increases).

Phase 2: Bitcoin breaks its all-time high, and altcoins begin to enter a rapid rally phase.

This pattern can be seen more clearly in the chart below:

During this phase, we start accumulating altcoins when the total altcoin market cap is at the lower end of its range. I believe altcoin prices will break to new highs just like Bitcoin.

Currently, Phase 2 has already started!

For more details, see: link.

1.2 Capital flow patterns
The start of the bull market can be traced back to the end of 2023, when Bitcoin bottomed out and rebounded, returning to its range and rising to previous highs, while altcoins depreciated against Bitcoin and Bitcoin dominance increased.

When Bitcoin breaks its all-time high (i.e., the current phase), capital begins to flow into large-cap altcoins. From the Total 3 chart (total market cap of the top 100 altcoins excluding BTC and ETH), although it is currently mainly driven by large-cap coins (such as XRP), mid- and small-cap coins are also catching up.

Eventually, capital from Bitcoin and large-cap coins will gradually flow into mid- and small-cap altcoins.

As market sentiment heats up, investors will become greedier and start chasing mid- and small-cap altcoins. I expect "other" mid-cap altcoins to hit new highs. The real altcoin season is still ahead.

1.3 Bitcoin Dominance
Each cycle follows a similar pattern: when Bitcoin breaks its previous high and makes its first surge, its dominance begins to decline.

Currently, Bitcoin dominance has broken an uptrend that lasted more than 800 days.

1.4 ETHBTC trend analysis
In each cycle, Ethereum performs weakly early on (Bitcoin rises but remains below its previous high), then begins to rebound once Bitcoin holds above its previous high.

The current cycle is no exception. I expect more capital to flow into Ethereum ecosystem tokens, on-chain utility tokens, and high-risk tokens. Once ETHBTC truly enters an uptrend, these tokens will perform even better.